ECB and BoJ hikes signal end of the Easy-money era

Crypto Insight Summary: * Three major developed-market central banks moved in five days, with the ECB hiking to 2.25%, the BoJ hiking to 1%, and the RBA holding at 4.35% after front-loading earlier hikes. * All three cited the same trigger: the energy shock from the US-Israel-Iran conflict that pushed inflation back above target before a peace deal was signed on June 15. * The BoJ and RBA tightened _after_ the deal, signalling that central banks are responding to inflation already in the pipeline, not future expectations. **The European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Reserve Bank of Australia all moved in five days this week, with the ECB hiking on June 11, the BoJ hiking on June 16, and the RBA holding the same day after three earlier hikes this year. All three cited the energy shock from the Iran conflict as the driver, even though President Trump and Iran signed a peace deal on June 15 that is set to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.** The global rate-cut cycle that supported risk assets through 2025 and most of 2026 has effectively ended. The ECB lifted its deposit rate 25 basis points to 2.25% on June 11, its first hike since September 2023, with eurozone inflation at 3.2% in May and energy prices up 10.9% year on year. The BoJ raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1% (the highest it’s been since 1995) on June 16th by a vote of 7-1, the only dissent coming from board member Toichiro Asada. It should be mentioned that the RBA maintained its rate at 4.35% on the same day, as they already had three rate hikes earlier in 2026, up from 3.60%, due to fuel and commodity prices driven up by the conflict in the Middle East. The Fed holds its next meeting next week, and futures prices predict about a 68% likelihood that rates will be increased again this year. President Trump announced a US-Iran ceasefire deal on June 14, with both sides digitally signing a memorandum of understanding on June 15 that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the US naval blockade. Crypto Insight Analysis: Direction: Bearish BTC / Bearish ETH / Bearish ALT Impact: Major Impact Horizon: Mid-term (1-8 weeks) Reasoning: Global rate hikes signal tighter liquidity, reducing risk appetite for crypto.