Gensler Files Brief Arguing Sports Prediction Markets Fall Outside CFTC Swap Rules

Crypto Insight Summary: 1. 3. 5. Former CFTC and SEC chair Gary Gensler filed an amicus brief with the Sixth Circuit arguing that sports-event prediction markets are not swaps under Dodd-Frank, directly contradicting the CFTC's own position in the KalshiEX v. By:• 4 hours ago Regulation & Politics Gary Gensler, the former chair of both the CFTC and the SEC, Thursday with the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals arguing that sports-event prediction markets are not federally regulated swaps under Dodd-Frank. The brief sides with state regulators against Kalshi, one of the largest prediction-market platforms, in the latest round of the federal-versus-state jurisdiction battle over prediction markets. Courts have split on the question, raising the prospect of Supreme Court review of a market that, by the CFTC's own count, saw trading volume across registered prediction markets exceed $25 billion in 2025. The Commission in the same case on May 12, asserting exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets and arguing that states cannot treat swaps traded on a designated contract market as illegal gambling. Gensler led the CFTC's implementation of Dodd-Frank as chair from 2009 to 2014 and helped draft the law's swap provisions. Crypto Insight Analysis: Direction: Neutral Impact: Minor Impact Horizon: Short-term (1-3 days) Reasoning: Clarifies regulatory boundaries for prediction markets but has limited direct impact on crypto markets.