Bitcoin may act as a ‘canary in the coal mine’ as risk-off pressure spreads: Bitwise

Crypto Insight Summary: Bitwise research suggests Bitcoin is acting as a "canary in the macro coal mine," leading a broader risk-off move across global markets. Bitcoin and Ether reached cycle lows of $58,000 and $1,507, respectively, while the Nasdaq recorded its sharpest daily decline of 5% in months and South Korea's KOSPI triggered a temporary trading halt following a sell-off in semiconductor stocks. The downturn followed stronger-than-expected US labor market data, which reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The 10-year US Treasury yield held near 4.53% after touching 4.68% the previous month, its highest level in a year. Bitwise noted a recurring pattern in which Bitcoin weakens months before equities, as BTC trades continuously and reacts quickly to liquidity changes. Despite the price decline, Global M2 liquidity has climbed to roughly $122.6 trillion, up steadily over the past year, while Bitcoin has retraced sharply from its $126,000 highs. Onchain data from analyst Maartunn shows the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) RSI has dropped to an oversold reading of 13, historically associated with accumulation zones. Combined stablecoin exchange reserves stand near $72 billion, including $57.7 billion in USDT and $12 billion in USDC, down from late-2025 peaks above $80 billion but still elevated. Bitcoin was trading near $62,000 at the time of the report, with analysts suggesting the asset may be further along in its adjustment than equities if liquidity conditions improve. Crypto Insight Analysis: Direction: Bearish BTC / Bearish ETH Impact: Major Impact Horizon: Short-term (1-3 days) Reasoning: Stronger US labor data reduces rate cut expectations, triggering risk-off sentiment and BTC/ETH decline.