Wintermute Starts Quoting Prediction Markets as Event-Contract Volume Tops $60B in 2026

Crypto Insight Summary: Wintermute, a London-based algorithmic trading firm handling more than $3.5 trillion in annual crypto trading volume, announced it is now providing two-sided liquidity on prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi. The move comes as event-contract trading volume across the sector surpassed $60 billion in 2026, with monthly turnover exceeding $20 billion on leading venues. Combined monthly volume on Kalshi and Polymarket grew from under $5 billion in September 2025 to roughly $24 billion in April 2026, pushing lifetime volume across both platforms past $150 billion that month. Kalshi recorded $14.81 billion in monthly notional volume, with sports accounting for 80% of its activity since July 2024, while Polymarket cleared $9.01 billion, driven by politics (32%) and crypto (20%). Wintermute's Head of OTC Trading, Jake Ostrovskis, described prediction markets as having "the demand profile of a major asset class but the liquidity profile of an early-stage one," emphasizing the need for sustained two-sided quoting. Wintermute joins Jump Trading and Galaxy Digital, which already provide liquidity on event contracts, signaling growing institutional recognition of the sector as a derivatives frontier. On the same day, the CFTC approved Kalshi to offer U.S.-regulated Bitcoin perpetual futures, further blurring lines between prediction markets and traditional derivatives. Regulatory headwinds are mounting, with Spain joining Brazil, Indonesia, India Crypto Insight Analysis: Direction: Bullish GT / Neutral BTC Impact: Minor Impact Horizon: Mid-term (1-8 weeks) Reasoning: Institutional involvement in prediction markets boosts platform tokens but has limited direct impact on BTC.