Bitcoin · 2026-06-25
That day's view: BTC closed 6/25 at $59,794 (-2.10%), opening $61,078, high $61,962, low $58,115, extending the 6/24 decline (-2.64%) with the drop slightly narrowing. The session formed a deep V to $58,115 before recovering toward $59,800. Volume of 30,386 BTC was -1.0% lighter vs 6/24, a 'shrinkage-on-decline' pattern. Funding rate flipped slightly positive at +0.00091% (vs 6/24 +0.00072%), still neutral-to-low—no panic short-squeeze or aggressive short buildup. Open interest +4.48% (vs 6/24 +2.00%), doubling in pace, with major players accumulating against the trend below $59,000. Composite reading (c-mix) is mixed: retail long/short 2.39 elevated, taker buy/sell 1.02 neutral, top-trader L/S 1.14 slightly rising—selling pressure release and dip-buying coexist. Fear & Greed Index 12 (extreme fear) for two straight sessions (6/24 17 → 6/25 12); sentiment remains bearish with no capitulation bottom signal yet. Key levels: resistance $60,800-$61,000 and $61,962 (today's H); support $58,000 psychological and $57,000-$57,200 (two-day L). Watch 6/26 US PCE.
Key Data
- BTC close: UTC 2026-06-25 00:00 $61,078.00, UTC 2026-06-25 24:00 $59,806.00, -2.10% on the window
- Intraday range: high $61,962.40 / low $58,115.01, range $3,847.39 (6.30%)
- 24h total network volume: 30,386 BTC (≈ $1.822B)
- Perpetual funding rate: 4-period average +0.00091% (00:00 -0.00142% / 08:00 -0.00180% / 16:00 +0.00158% / 24:00 +0.00530%)
- Taker buy/sell ratio: 24h average 1.0196, latest 0.9500
- Retail long/short account ratio: 24h average 2.3158, latest 2.3864
- Top-trader long/short ratio: 24h average 1.1356, latest 1.1671
- Open interest: 24h net +4.48%, currently 105,339 BTC
- Perpetual basis: stable in -0.05% to +0.05% range
- Fear & Greed Index: 12 on 2026-06-25 (extreme fear)
24H Price Review
- Session · Early (UTC 00-06): open $61,078.00 → $61,600.01, +0.85%, 6h volume 4,201 BTC
- Session · Pre-noon (UTC 06-12): open $61,600.02 → $61,282.01, -0.52%, 6h volume 3,434 BTC
- Session · Afternoon (UTC 12-18): open $61,282.00 → $59,676.01, -2.62%, 6h volume 18,807 BTC
- Session · Close (UTC 18-24): open $59,676.00 → $59,794.00, +0.20%, 6h volume 3,943 BTC
Macro Calendar
- 🟡 2026-06-27 (Sat) · US May ISM Services PMI · Impact: Medium
- 🟡 2026-07-01 (Wed) · US May ISM Manufacturing PMI · Impact: Medium
- 🟡 2026-07-01 (Wed) · US May Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) · Impact: Medium
- 🔴 2026-07-03 (Fri) · US May CPI (YoY/MoM) · Impact: High
- 🟡 2026-07-04 (Sat) · Defunct Mt. Gox creditor repayment window · Impact: Medium
- 🟡 2026-07-05 (Sun) · Strategy (MSTR) ongoing BTC sale risk · Impact: Medium
- 🔴 2026-07-08 (Wed) · FOMC rate decision (minutes next day) · Impact: High
- 🔴 2026-07-09 (Thu) · Fed Chair press conference · Impact: High
Bull vs. Bear
- Session 3 (UTC 12-18) single-stage plunge -2.62% with concentrated volume 18,807 BTC, hitting window low $58,115.01—a textbook 'negative-event-triggered concentrated selling pressure' pattern
- OI 24h net +4.48% with price down = active short accumulation; OI up +4,513 BTC while price down -2.10%, classic active short buildup
- FGI 12 extreme fear with fragile sentiment, still in extreme-fear zone (since 5/31), retail L/S 2.32 heavily long = contrarian indicator; if price continues lower, retail stop-losses amplify selling pressure
- Session 1 (UTC 00-06) single-stage bounce +0.85% with volume 4,201 BTC, hitting window high $61,962.40—a 'post-negative-event technical rebound' pattern
- Top-trader L/S 24h average 1.14 indicates institutions mildly long; while not strongly bullish, top-traders are not actively reducing exposure
- Late-session taker buy ratio 0.9500 below 1.0 but session rebound shows dip-buying starting to engage near the bottom