Bitcoin · 2026-10-25

That day's trend: Neutral leaning bearish

That day's view: Today's View: BTC closed at 80154 on 10/25, down 0.91%, opening at 80888, with a high of 81034 and a low of 79846. After rebounding 0.27% in the afternoon, it plunged 0.79% over the final six hours of the session, with selling pressure concentrated toward the close. Trading volume was 6,253 BTC, 54.9% below the 7-day average of 13,865, marking a recent low in turnover. Funding: All four periods were positive without flipping negative, while the final period declined from 0.008027% to 0.001713%, a 78.7% drop, indicating waning willingness among longs to pay funding. Positioning: Open interest fell from 95,166 to 93,684, down 1.56%. The decline in both price and open interest reflects deleveraging rather than fresh short entries, and the active buy/sell ratio of 0.7974 shows that sellers dominated. Structure: The whale long/short ratio fell 4.44% to 1.6263, while the account-level ratio declined only slightly by 0.52%. Both tiers saw positions move in the same direction, with positions declining faster than accounts. The retail long/short ratio fell 1.61%, and the Fear and Greed Index rose from 51 to 54. The signal is classified as (c), representing a moderately weak deleveraging-led variant. The collapse in funding during the final period, combined with selling pressure dominating the close, indicates no fresh short leverage. Across assets, this is an ice-volume weak-direction variant: ETH fell more deeply, while whale positioning diverged across the two tiers. The market is in the T+3 position-downgrade and observation window ahead of the 10/28 interest-rate decision. Outlook: Resistance at 81034 and support at 79846. Monitor the 10/28 interest-rate decision and Warsh's press conference, as well as the 10/30 options expiry. Under ice-level volume, the directional breakout awaits confirmation from a catalyst.

Key Data

BTC closing price: UTC 2026-10-25 00:00 at $80888.15; UTC 2026-10-25 24:00 at $80162.00; -0.91% within the window
Intraday range: high $81033.69 / low $79845.86, range $1187.83 (1.47%)
24-hour total market volume: 6,253 BTC (approximately $504 million)
Perpetual funding rate: four-period average +0.00629% (10-25 00:00 +0.00941% / 10-25 08:00 +0.00600% / 10-25 16:00 +0.00803% / 10-26 00:00 +0.00171%)
Active buyer/seller ratio: 24-hour average of 1.0312, latest reading at 0.7974
Long/short account ratio (retail): 24-hour average of 2.1237, latest reading at 2.1726
Whale long/short position ratio: 24-hour average of 1.6668, latest reading at 1.6263
Open interest (OI): net change over 24h of -1.56%, currently 93,684 BTC
Perpetual basis: stable within the -0.05% to +0.05% range
Fear and Greed Index: 54 on 2026-10-25 (Neutral)

24H Market Review

Phase · Early session (UTC 00-06): open $80888.15 → $80607.65, -0.35%, 6h volume 1,357 BTC.
Phase · Early afternoon (UTC 06-12): open $80607.64 → $80580.97, -0.03%, 6h volume 1,294 BTC.
Phase · Afternoon (UTC 12-18): open $80580.97 → $80796.00, +0.27%, 6h volume 1,557 BTC.
Phase · Closing session (UTC 18-24): open $80796.00 → $80154.09, -0.79%, 6h volume 2,045 BTC.

Upcoming Macro Calendar

🔴 2026-10-28 (Wednesday) · Federal Reserve October interest-rate decision · Impact: High
🔴 2026-10-28 (Wednesday) · Federal Reserve Chair press conference (Warsh) · Impact: High
🔴 2026-10-30 (Friday) · BTC October options expiry (Deribit) · Impact: High
🟡 2026-11-02 (Monday) · US October ISM Manufacturing Index · Impact: Medium
🟡 2026-11-04 (Wednesday) · US October ISM Services Index · Impact: Medium
🔴 2026-11-06 (Friday) · US October Nonfarm Payrolls Report (NFP) · Impact: High
🔴 2026-11-10 (Tuesday) · US October Consumer Price Index (CPI, year-over-year/month-over-month) · Impact: High
🟡 2026-11-13 (Friday) · US October Producer Price Index (PPI) · Impact: Medium

Long/Short Contest

Phase 4 (UTC 18-24) saw a sharp single-phase decline of -0.79% on concentrated volume of 2,045 BTC | Reached the window low of $79845.86, a typical pattern of concentrated selling triggered by a bearish event
OI posted a net change of -1.56% over 24h as both longs and shorts deleveraged | Net OI declined by 1,482 BTC, with both sides actively reducing positions, a typical deleveraging state
The 1.47% range reflects intense long/short competition | The 24h range of 1.47% reached a recent high, indicating rising price volatility and increased position risk
Phase 3 (UTC 12-18) saw a single-phase rebound of +0.27% on volume of 1,557 BTC | Reached the window high of $81033.69, a typical technical rebound after a bearish event
The whale long/short ratio averaged 1.67 over 24h, indicating mild institutional bullishness | The whale L/S ratio averaged 1.67 over 24h and ended at 1.63, showing that institutions maintained a mildly bullish stance throughout the window
The close at $80154.09 held the $79845.86-$81033.69 range | The 24h price remained within the window range without breaking the lower boundary, meaning short-term support held