Ethereum · 2026-06-29

That day's trend: Neutral leaning bullish

That day's view: ETH closed 6/29 at $1,613 (+2.62%), O=1,572 H=1,638 L=1,550, volume 309,969 ETH, second 12h volume 2.27x the first (1.35x BTC's multiplier). Funding flipped from -0.0002% to +0.0045% (sign-flip level, ETH's bullish flip is 5x faster than BTC's). OI -1.19% de-risking harder but price up even more — short-squeeze contribution prominent, top-trader ratio 1.42 bullish, retail L/S 2.24 capitulation-buying. Force mechanism: (c) pure short-covering-driven rebound. FGI 12 extreme fear; $1,638 H is the key resistance. Watch whether 7/1 PCE data breaks the H.

Key Data

ETH close: UTC 2026-06-29 00:00 $1,571.96, UTC 2026-06-29 24:00 $1,612.17, window +2.62%
Intraday range: high $1,637.58 / low $1,550.43, range $87.15 (5.54%)
24h total network volume: 309,969 ETH (~$493M)
Perpetual funding rate: 4-period mean +0.00167% (06-29 00:00 -0.00018% / 06-29 08:00 +0.00022% / 06-29 16:00 +0.00214% / 06-30 00:00 +0.00449%)
Taker buy/sell ratio: 24h mean 0.9894, latest 0.9537
Retail long/short ratio: 24h mean 2.2443, latest 2.0157
Top-trader long/short ratio: 24h mean 1.4220, latest 1.4700
Open interest (OI): 24h net -1.19%, current 2,268,432 ETH
Perpetual basis: stable in -0.05% to +0.05% band
Fear & Greed Index: 2026-06-29 at 12 (extreme fear)

24H Price Review

Phase 1 early session (UTC 00-06): open $1,571.96 → $1,583.10, +0.71%, 6h volume 50,133 ETH.
Phase 2 mid-morning (UTC 06-12): open $1,583.10 → $1,574.93, -0.52%, 6h volume 44,601 ETH.
Phase 3 afternoon (UTC 12-18): open $1,574.93 → $1,628.03, +3.37%, 6h volume 161,855 ETH.
Phase 4 closing (UTC 18-24): open $1,628.04 → $1,613.07, -0.92%, 6h volume 53,379 ETH.

Macro Calendar

2026-07-01 (Wed) · U.S. May ISM Services PMI · Impact: Medium
2026-07-05 (Sun) · U.S. May ISM Manufacturing PMI · Impact: Medium
2026-07-05 (Sun) · U.S. May Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) · Impact: Medium
2026-07-07 (Tue) · U.S. May CPI (YoY/MoM) · Impact: High
2026-07-08 (Wed) · Distressed Mt. Gox creditor repayment window · Impact: Medium
2026-07-09 (Thu) · Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) ongoing BTC selling risk · Impact: Medium
2026-07-12 (Sun) · FOMC interest rate decision (minutes next day) · Impact: High
2026-07-13 (Mon) · Fed Chair press conference · Impact: High

Bull vs. Bear

Phase 4 (UTC 18-24) one-shot drop -0.92% with concentrated 53,379 ETH volume — touched window low $1,550.43, classic 'news-triggered concentrated selling pressure' pattern
OI 24h net -1.19% — longs and shorts simultaneously de-leveraging | net -27,399 ETH, both sides actively reducing exposure, classic de-leveraging state
FGI 12 extreme fear — sentiment still fragile (persisting since 5/31), retail L/S 2.24 heavily long acts as a contrarian indicator: further downside could trigger retail stop-loss selling pressure
Phase 3 (UTC 12-18) one-shot bounce +3.37% with 161,855 ETH volume — touched window high $1,637.58, classic 'post-news technical rebound' pattern
Top-trader long/short ratio 24h mean 1.42 — institutions mildly bullish | mean 1.42 / closing 1.47, showing institutions maintained a mildly bullish stance through the window
Taker buy-side at close 0.9537 — buy-side returning | end-of-window taker buy pressure returning aligns with the closing rebound, indicating buyers stepping back in after a low was tested