Ethereum · 2026-07-04

That day's trend: Neutral leaning bullish

That day's view: ETH 7/4 closed at $1,775.90 (+1.28%), range $1,744–$1,807, outperforming BTC (β 1.42x); volume 190,880 ETH, down 21.9% from 7/3, buy-side momentum fading in sync with BTC but milder. Funding +0.0076% held mild positive; OI eased -0.11% to 2.299M contracts. The combination of falling OI + shrinking volume + small price gain reflects a major-player wait-and-see + funding turning neutral → weak rebound. Retail L/S 1.59 bullish (1.55→1.63, retracing longs up), top-trader L/S 1.43 stable bullish, FGI 22 sustained extreme fear. Near-term resistance 1,810, support 1,745. On 7/5 watch US ISM Non-Manufacturing + June ADP Employment; bull-bear contest leans range-bound with bearish bias, but ETH rebound slightly outpaces BTC.

Key Data

ETH close: UTC 2026-07-04 00:00 = $1,758.22, UTC 2026-07-04 24:00 = $1,775.90, window +1.28%
Intraday range: high $1,807.65 / low $1,744.09, amplitude $63.56 (3.62%)
24h total volume: 190,880 ETH (~$339M)
Perp funding: 4-period mean +0.00759% (07-04 00:00 +0.00975% / 07-04 08:00 +0.00764% / 07-04 16:00 +0.00517% / 07-05 00:00 +0.00782%)
Taker buy/sell ratio: 24h mean 1.0213, latest 0.7744
Retail long/short ratio: 24h mean 1.5956, latest 1.6344
Top-trader long/short ratio: 24h mean 1.4297, latest 1.4326
Open Interest: 24h net -0.11%, now 2,299,277 ETH
Perp basis: stable in -0.05% to +0.05% band
Fear & Greed Index: 2026-07-04 = 22 (Extreme Fear)

24H Price Review

Stage · Early (UTC 00-06): open $1,758.22 → $1,755.99, -0.13%, 6h volume 29,696 ETH
Stage · Mid-morning (UTC 06-12): open $1,755.98 → $1,758.24, +0.13%, 6h volume 33,686 ETH
Stage · Afternoon (UTC 12-18): open $1,758.23 → $1,799.36, +2.34%, 6h volume 90,311 ETH
Stage · Closing (UTC 18-24): open $1,799.36 → $1,780.64, -1.04%, 6h volume 37,187 ETH

Macro Calendar

🟡 2026-07-06 (Mon) · US May ISM Services Index · Impact: Medium
🟡 2026-07-10 (Fri) · US May ISM Manufacturing Index · Impact: Medium
🟡 2026-07-10 (Fri) · US May Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) · Impact: Medium
🔴 2026-07-12 (Sun) · US May Consumer Price Index (YoY/MoM) · Impact: High
🟡 2026-07-13 (Mon) · Defunct Mt. Gox exchange creditor repayment window · Impact: Medium
🟡 2026-07-14 (Tue) · Strategy company continued BTC selling risk · Impact: Medium
🔴 2026-07-17 (Fri) · Fed interest rate decision (next-day minutes) · Impact: High
🔴 2026-07-18 (Sat) · Fed Chair press conference · Impact: High

Bull vs. Bear

Stage 4 (UTC 18-24) sharp drop -1.04% + concentrated 37,187 ETH volume | touched window low $1,744.09, a textbook short-event-driven concentrated-sell pattern
OI 24h net -0.11% near-neutral | OI net -2,542 ETH, no clear outflow but no aggressive positioning
FGI 22 extreme fear, sentiment fragile | still in extreme fear since 5/31; retail L/S 1.60 overly bullish = contrarian signal, further downside risks amplified retail stop-loss selling
Stage 3 (UTC 12-18) rebound +2.34% + 90,311 ETH volume | touched window high $1,807.65, a textbook post-event technical rebound
Top-trader L/S 24h mean 1.43, institutional mildly bullish | top-trader L/S mean 1.43 / close 1.43 shows institutions held a mildly bullish stance through the window
Taker buy ratio close 0.7744 > 1.0 buy-side returning | late-window taker buy return alongside the closing rebound reflects buyers stepping in after the bottom test