Ethereum · 2026-09-29

That day's trend: Neutral leaning bullish

That day's view: Opening at 2688.71 closing at 2677.98, -0.40% for the day, H-L spread of $96.40 indicating wide intraday shakeout. Spot volume 315,936 ETH, +32.6% vs 7d average of 238,272 ETH. Funding 4 tenor mid-section spike then late pullback: +0.006984→+0.01→+0.004202→+0.006622, final -5.2%. OI 2254622→2257043 +0.11% slight increase, funding all positive late slight decrease + taker late 1.22 active buy + top_acc_ls 1.449→1.527 +5.4% whales accumulating longs. Signal (c-mix) short covering driven variant. ETH volume +32.6% absorbing short-term buying, diverging from BTC contraction. Key level $2678 as pivot, above 2749, below 2652 as 24h highs/lows; FGI 74→73 -1 steady Greed, 10/2 NFP as first high-impact shock point for the window.

Key Data

ETH Closing Price: $2688.71 at UTC 2026-09-29 00:00, $2676.83 at UTC 2026-09-29 24:00, -0.40% within window
Intraday Range: High $2748.60 / Low $2652.20, Spread $96.40 (3.59%)
24H Total Network Volume: 315,936 ETH (~$854M)
Perpetual Funding Rate: 4-period average +0.00695% (09-29 00:00 +0.00698% / 09-29 08:00 +0.01000% / 09-29 16:00 +0.00420% / 09-30 00:00 +0.00662%)
Taker Buy/Sell Ratio: 24H average 1.0023, latest 1.2182
Long/Short Account Ratio (retail): 24H average 2.5583, latest 2.7411
Whale Position Long/Short Ratio: 24H average 1.5342, latest 1.5532
Open Interest (OI): 24h net +0.11%, currently 2,257,043 ETH
Perpetual Basis: Stable within -0.05% to +0.05% range
Fear & Greed Index: 73 on 2026-09-29 (Neutral)

24H Market Recap

Phase · Early (UTC 00-06): Open $2688.71 → $2676.54, -0.45%, 6h volume 40,118 ETH.
Phase · Late Morning (UTC 06-12): Open $2676.54 → $2732.47, +2.09%, 6h volume 116,263 ETH.
Phase · Afternoon (UTC 12-18): Open $2732.47 → $2673.76, -2.15%, 6h volume 115,768 ETH.
Phase · Close (UTC 18-24): Open $2673.77 → $2677.98, +0.16%, 6h volume 43,787 ETH.

Upcoming Macro Calendar

🔴 2026-10-02 (Fri) · US September Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) · Impact: High
🔴 2026-10-13 (Tue) · US September Consumer Price Index (CPI, YoY/MoM) · Impact: High
🟡 2026-10-15 (Thu) · US September Producer Price Index (PPI) · Impact: Medium
🟡 2026-10-23 (Fri) · BTC October Options Expiry (Deribit) · Impact: Medium
🔴 2026-10-28 (Wed) · Fed October Rate Decision · Impact: High
🔴 2026-10-29 (Thu) · Fed Chair Press Conference (Walsh) · Impact: High

Long/Short Battle

Phase 3 (UTC 12-18) single-phase sharp drop -2.15% + concentrated volume 115,768 ETH | Touched window low $2652.20, typical "bearish event triggered concentrated selling" pattern
OI 24h net +0.11% near neutral | OI net +2,421 ETH, capital not clearly exiting but not actively building positions
3.59% amplitude high volatility reflecting intense long/short battle | 24h amplitude 3.59% hitting recent high, price volatility rising = position risk increasing
Phase 2 (UTC 06-12) single-phase rebound +2.09% + volume 116,263 ETH | Touched window high $2748.60, typical "post-bearish event technical rebound" pattern
Whale position long/short ratio 24h average 1.53 institutional slightly bullish | Whale L/S 24h average 1.53 / close 1.55, showing institutions maintaining slightly bullish stance within window
Active buying at close 1.2182 > 1.0 buying returns | Late taker buying returns, showing market has buying support near $2652.20