Bitcoin · 2026-07-04

Tendencia del día: Neutral inclinando alcista

Vista del día: BTC 7/4 closed at $63,036 (+0.90% in window), range $62,328–$63,462. Volume 9,140 BTC, down 34.9% from 7/3, indicating fading buy-side momentum. Funding +0.0098% held mild positive; OI rose +0.15% to 106,398 contracts. The combination of rising OI + shrinking volume + small price gain is a passive rebound under major-player wait-and-see, not real buy-side driven. Retail long/short ratio 1.47 mildly bullish (1.55→1.47), top-trader ratio 1.25 flat, FGI 22 sustained extreme fear. Near-term resistance 63,500, support 62,300. On 7/5 watch US ISM Non-Manufacturing + June ADP Employment; the bull-bear contest leans range-bound with bearish bias.

Key Data

BTC close: UTC 2026-07-04 00:00 = $62,583.26, UTC 2026-07-04 24:00 = $63,036.10, window +0.90%
Intraday range: high $63,461.99 / low $62,328.24, amplitude $1,133.75 (1.81%)
24h total volume: 9,140 BTC (~$574M)
Perp funding: 4-period mean +0.00975% (07-04 00:00 +0.01000% / 07-04 08:00 +0.01000% / 07-04 16:00 +0.00948% / 07-05 00:00 +0.00953%)
Taker buy/sell ratio: 24h mean 1.0706, latest 0.7971
Retail long/short ratio: 24h mean 1.5052, latest 1.4716
Top-trader long/short ratio: 24h mean 1.2365, latest 1.2475
Open Interest: 24h net +0.15%, now 106,398 BTC
Perp basis: stable in -0.05% to +0.05% band
Fear & Greed Index: 2026-07-04 = 22 (Extreme Fear)

24H Price Review

Stage · Early (UTC 00-06): open $62,583.26 → $62,471.52, -0.18%, 6h volume 2,416 BTC
Stage · Mid-morning (UTC 06-12): open $62,471.53 → $62,482.01, +0.02%, 6h volume 1,896 BTC
Stage · Afternoon (UTC 12-18): open $62,482.00 → $63,280.38, +1.28%, 6h volume 2,555 BTC
Stage · Closing (UTC 18-24): open $63,280.38 → $63,144.01, -0.22%, 6h volume 2,273 BTC

Macro Calendar

🟡 2026-07-06 (Mon) · US May ISM Services Index · Impact: Medium
🟡 2026-07-10 (Fri) · US May ISM Manufacturing Index · Impact: Medium
🟡 2026-07-10 (Fri) · US May Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) · Impact: Medium
🔴 2026-07-12 (Sun) · US May Consumer Price Index (YoY/MoM) · Impact: High
🟡 2026-07-13 (Mon) · Defunct Mt. Gox exchange creditor repayment window · Impact: Medium
🟡 2026-07-14 (Tue) · Strategy company continued BTC selling risk · Impact: Medium
🔴 2026-07-17 (Fri) · Fed interest rate decision (next-day minutes) · Impact: High
🔴 2026-07-18 (Sat) · Fed Chair press conference · Impact: High

Bull vs. Bear

Stage 4 (UTC 18-24) sharp drop -0.22% + concentrated 2,273 BTC volume | touched window low $62,328.24, a textbook short-event-driven concentrated-sell pattern
OI 24h net +0.15% near-neutral | OI net +162 BTC, no clear outflow but no aggressive positioning
FGI 22 extreme fear, sentiment fragile | still in extreme fear since 5/31; retail L/S 1.51 overly bullish = contrarian signal, further downside risks amplified retail stop-loss selling
Stage 3 (UTC 12-18) rebound +1.28% + 2,555 BTC volume | touched window high $63,461.99, a textbook post-event technical rebound
Top-trader L/S 24h mean 1.24, institutional mildly bullish | top-trader L/S mean 1.24 / close 1.25 shows institutions held a mildly bullish stance through the window
Taker buy ratio close 0.7971 > 1.0 buy-side returning | late-window taker buy return alongside the closing rebound reflects buyers stepping in after the bottom test