Bitcoin · 2026-07-08

Tendencia del día: Bajista cauteloso

Vista del día: BTC 7/8 closed at $62,290 (-1.69%), opening at $63,364 and dipping to a $61,544 low before a US-session recovery, range $63,762-$61,545 amplitude 3.5%. Volume 18,620 BTC, down ~8% from 7/7, quote vol $1.16B. Funding +0.00473% stayed positive with a slight uplift; OI rose +0.95% (99,418 to 100,363 BTC contracts). Top-trader L/S 1.46 mildly bullish, top_acc 1.86 still elevated; retail L/S 1.70 extremely bullish while taker B/S 0.98 shows slight sell pressure, FGI remains at 20 (extreme fear). Pattern: (c-mix) price down + volume shrinking but OI rising + funding drifting up = short-side active entries rather than pure short-covering. The 63,000-63,400 area now acts as support; a break below 61,500 warns of an accelerated downside test toward 60,000. Watch tomorrow's CPI release and Fed Chair Powell's speech - macro cues may break the range.

Key Data

BTC close: UTC 2026-07-08 00:00 = $63,364.00, UTC 2026-07-08 24:00 = $62,210.81, window -1.69%
Intraday range: high $63,761.99 / low $61,544.56, amplitude $2,217.43 (3.50%)
24h total volume: 18,620 BTC (~$1.16B)
Perp funding: 4-period mean +0.00473% (07-08 00:00 +0.00485% / 07-08 08:00 +0.00072% / 07-08 16:00 +0.00717% / 07-09 00:00 +0.00616%)
Taker buy/sell ratio: 24h mean 0.9793, latest 0.9128
Retail long/short ratio: 24h mean 1.7008, latest 1.7778
Top-trader long/short ratio: 24h mean 1.4562, latest 1.4624
Open Interest: 24h net +0.95%, now 100,363 BTC
Perp basis: stable in -0.05% to +0.05% band
Fear & Greed Index: 2026-07-08 = 20 (Extreme Fear)

24H Price Review

Stage · Early (UTC 00-06): open $63,364.00 → $62,637.88, -1.15%, 6h volume 4,097 BTC
Stage · Mid-morning (UTC 06-12): open $62,637.88 → $62,299.99, -0.54%, 6h volume 6,219 BTC
Stage · Afternoon (UTC 12-18): open $62,300.00 → $62,104.62, -0.31%, 6h volume 5,761 BTC
Stage · Closing (UTC 18-24): open $62,104.62 → $62,290.00, +0.30%, 6h volume 2,543 BTC

Macro Calendar

🟡 2026-07-10 (Fri) · US June Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) · Impact: Medium
🟡 2026-07-14 (Tue) · US June Producer Price Index (PPI) · Impact: Medium
🔴 2026-07-15 (Wed) · US June Consumer Price Index (CPI, YoY/MoM) · Impact: High
🟡 2026-07-22 (Wed) · BTC July options expiry (Deribit) · Impact: Medium

Bull vs. Bear

Stage 1 (UTC 00-06) sharp drop -1.15% + concentrated 4,097 BTC volume | touched window low $61,544.56, a textbook short-event-driven concentrated-sell pattern
OI 24h net +0.95% near-neutral | OI net +944 BTC, no clear outflow but no aggressive positioning
FGI 20 extreme fear, sentiment fragile | still in extreme fear since 5/31; retail L/S 1.70 overly bullish = contrarian signal, further downside risks amplified retail stop-loss selling
Stage 4 (UTC 18-24) rebound +0.30% + 2,543 BTC volume | touched window high $63,761.99, a textbook post-event technical rebound
Top-trader L/S 24h mean 1.46, institutional mildly bullish | top-trader L/S mean 1.46 / close 1.46 shows institutions held a mildly bullish stance through the window
Taker buy ratio close 0.9128 > 1.0 buy-side returning | late-window taker buy return alongside the closing rebound reflects buyers stepping in after the bottom test