Bitcoin · 2026-08-11
当日の見解：BTC 8/11 closed at $63600 (-0.58%)，range 63,238-64,515，Volume 12,892 BTC vs 8/10 contracted -5.5%。Funding mildly positive +0.00564% (near neutral)，OI significantly up +2.80% (main force opening new positions)，Taker B/S 0.94 (sell pressure dominant)。main force L/S 1.60 long positioning，retail L/S 1.67 retail chasing long，, but OI up + price down + taker sell = pattern (c), main force distributing to retail chasers above 64,000 + new shorts building in 64,300-64,500 range，longs trapped at high levels。FGI sustained Fear 29，no extreme sentiment reversal。Key levels: lower 63,238 daily low defense, break watch 62,800-62,500 vacuum; upper 64,515 high as bull-bear watershed.Watch 8/12 US monthly CPI data transmission to risk appetite。
Key Data
- BTC Close: UTC 2026-08-11 00:00 at $63970.01, UTC 2026-08-11 24:00 at $63554.00, -0.58% within window
- Intraday range: high $64515.43 / low $63238.00, amplitude $1277.43 (2.00%)
- 24h on-chain volume: 12,892 BTC (~$ 8.2400M USD)
- Perp funding rate: 4-period mean +0.00564%（08-11 00:00 +0.00230% / 08-11 08:00 +0.00196% / 08-11 16:00 +0.00828% / 08-12 00:00 +0.01000%）
- Taker buy/sell ratio: 24h mean 0.9409, latest 0.7832
- Retail long/short ratio: 24h mean 1.6671, latest 1.8043
- Top trader long/short ratio: 24h mean 1.5985, latest 1.6609
- Open Interest (OI): 24h net +2.80%, now at 109,260 BTC
- Perp basis: stable within -0.05% to +0.05% range
- Fear & Greed Index: 2026-08-11 at 29 (Fear)
24H Price Review
- Phase: Early Session (UTC 00-06): open $63970.01 → $64000.00, +0.05%, 6h volume 2,410 BTC.
- Phase: Late Morning (UTC 06-12): open $64000.00 → $64389.57, +0.61%, 6h volume 2,631 BTC.
- Phase: Afternoon (UTC 12-18): open $64389.58 → $63607.88, -1.21%, 6h volume 5,600 BTC.
- Phase: Closing (UTC 18-24): open $63607.87 → $63600.00, -0.01%, 6h volume 2,250 BTC.
Bull vs. Bear
- Phase 3 (UTC 12-18) single-phase dump -1.21% + concentrated volume 5,600 BTC | touched window low $63238.00, typical "news-driven sell pressure" pattern
- OI 24h net ++2.80% price down OI up = shorts actively building | OI +2,979 BTC while price falls -0.58%, typical active short accumulation
- Active sell pressure 24h mean 0.9409 < 1.0 sell-dominant | Taker continuously sell-side dominant，, although close 0.7832 buy-side returning but price showed no effective rebound
- Phase 2 (UTC 06-12) single-phase rebound +0.61% + volume 2,631 BTC | touched window high $64515.43, typical "technical rebound after sell-off" pattern
- Top trader L/S 24h mean 1.60 institutions mildly bullish | top L/S 24h mean 1.60 / close 1.66, institutions maintained mildly bullish stance in window
- close $63600.00 held $63238.00-$64515.43 range | 24h price held within window range, did not break lower edge = short-term support valid