Bitcoin · 2026-08-25
当日の見解：BTC closed 8/25 at $78,539 (-0.57%), touching the $81,272 intraday high before pulling back to the $77,851 support band, forming a round-trip pullback pattern. Funding rate +0.00839% maintained neutral mildly-positive, longs not actively retreating; OI simultaneously dropped from 107,216 to 106,592 (-0.58%), price down + volume stable + OI shrinking, three signals synchronously point to (c) short-covering driven, buy-side reception relatively restrained after selling pressure released. FGI 74 held in greed zone, but ETH drop 2.81x deeper than BTC, high-beta alts retreated more violently, main-force reduction sentiment more pronounced on ETH side. Near-term watch whether 77,000 holds, if lost then backfill 75,500 weekly line gap; next week's Jackson Hole central bank annual conference rate-cut expectations may amplify volatility.
Key Data
- BTC closing price: UTC 2026-08-25 00:00 at $78,992.76, UTC 2026-08-25 24:00 at $78,454.02, -0.57% within window
- Intraday range: high $81,272.62 / low $77,851.00, range $3,421.62 (4.33%)
- 24-hour total network volume: 24,773 BTC (~$1.971B)
- Perpetual funding rate: 4-period mean +0.00839% (08-25 00:00 +0.00582% / 08-25 08:00 +0.01000% / 08-25 16:00 +0.01000% / 08-26 00:00 +0.00773%)
- Taker buy/sell ratio: 24h mean 0.9997, latest 1.0438
- Retail long/short account ratio: 24h mean 0.9269, latest 1.0008
- Top-trader long/short ratio: 24h mean 2.1837, latest 2.2560
- Open Interest (OI): 24h net -0.58%, currently 106,592 BTC
- Perpetual basis: stable in -0.05% to +0.05% range
- Fear & Greed Index: 2026-08-25 reading 74 (Neutral)
24H Price Review
- Phase · Early (UTC 00-06): open $78,992.76 → $80,731.90, +2.20%, 6h volume 8,768 BTC.
- Phase · Early-Afternoon (UTC 06-12): open $80,731.90 → $79,117.99, -2.00%, 6h volume 5,771 BTC.
- Phase · Afternoon (UTC 12-18): open $79,118.00 → $79,240.01, +0.15%, 6h volume 6,175 BTC.
- Phase · Close (UTC 18-24): open $79,240.02 → $78,539.14, -0.88%, 6h volume 4,059 BTC.
Macro Calendar
- 🟡 2026-08-26 (Wed) · US August Consumer Confidence Index · Impact: Medium
- 🟡 2026-08-28 (Fri) · BTC August Options Expiry (Deribit) · Impact: Medium
- 🔴 2026-09-01 (Tue) · US August ISM Manufacturing Index · Impact: High
- 🔴 2026-09-04 (Fri) · US August Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) · Impact: High
- 🔴 2026-09-11 (Fri) · US August CPI (Year-over-Year / Month-over-Month) · Impact: High
- 🔴 2026-09-16 (Wed) · Fed September Rate Decision · Impact: High
- 🔴 2026-09-17 (Thu) · Fed Chair Press Conference (Powell) · Impact: High
Bull vs. Bear
- Phase 2 (UTC 06-12) single-phase sell-off -2.00% + concentrated volume 5,771 BTC | touched window low $77,851.00, classic "bearish-event triggered concentrated selling pressure" pattern
- OI 24h net -0.58% near-neutral | OI net -624 BTC, capital not clearly retreating but also not actively building
- Taker sell pressure 24h mean 0.9997 < 1.0 sell-side dominant | Taker persistently sell-side dominant, although late session 1.0438 buy-side returned price did not show effective rebound
- Phase 1 (UTC 00-06) single-phase rebound +2.20% + volume 8,768 BTC | touched window high $81,272.62, classic "post-bearish-event technical rebound" pattern
- Top-trader L/S 24h mean 2.18 institutions mildly bullish | top-trader L/S 24h mean 2.18 / close 2.26, showing institutions maintained mildly bullish stance within window
- Taker buy pressure late 1.0438 > 1.0 buy-side returned | late session taker buy-side returned, showing market has buy-side support near $77,851.00