Bitcoin · 2026-08-31
当日の見解：BTC stopped its slide and rebounded yesterday, with O 77,682 / C 78,581 / H 79,250 / L 77,392 and a 24h change of +1.16%. The session traced out a dip-and-recover structure — the L held above the key $77,000 support before stepping higher through the day and reclaiming $78,500 into the close. Volume of 15,304 BTC (about $1.198 billion) was a notable +68% above the prior day's 9,085 BTC, with volume clearly confirming the move. Phase 3 (UTC 12-18) rebounded +0.74% to the $79,250 high; Phase 4 (UTC 18-24) gave back -0.40% but the daily gain held. Funding stayed moderately positive at +0.00894%; OI rose +1.56% on 24h with longs building exposure; taker buy/sell averaged 0.9638 with sellers marginally in control intraday, though the latest 0.9948 print tilted toward buyers. FGI cooled from 69 (prior) to 62 (Neutral). Composite view: short-term stabilization with a bullish lean; resistance $79,500 – $80,000, support $77,000 – $76,500. Watch the dense cluster of high-impact US releases this week (ISM / NFP / CPI). A high-volume break above $79,500 would open upside, while a low-volume retest of $77,000 would still be a buyable dip.
Key Data
- BTC Closing Price: UTC 2026-08-31 00:00 reported $77,682.00, UTC 2026-08-31 24:00 reported $78,625.98, +1.16% within the window
- Intraday Range: High $79,250.00 / Low $77,392.00, range $1,858.00 (2.39%)
- 24h Total Network Volume: 15,304 BTC (approximately $1.198 billion)
- Perpetual Funding Rate: 4-period average +0.00894% (08-31 00:00 +0.00727% / 08-31 08:00 +0.01000% / 08-31 16:00 +0.01000% / 09-01 00:00 +0.00848%)
- Taker Buy/Sell Ratio: 24h average 0.9638, latest 0.9948
- Retail Long/Short Account Ratio: 24h average 1.0596, latest 0.9948
- Top Trader Long/Short Ratio: 24h average 2.0835, latest 2.0977
- Open Interest (OI): 24h net +1.56%, currently 107,978 BTC
- Perpetual Basis: Stable within the -0.05% to +0.05% range
- Fear & Greed Index: 2026-08-31 reading 62 (Neutral)
24H Price Review
- Phase · Early (UTC 00-06): Open $77,682.00 → $78,016.00, +0.43%, 6h volume 3,193 BTC.
- Phase · Mid-Morning (UTC 06-12): Open $78,016.01 → $78,315.43, +0.38%, 6h volume 4,151 BTC.
- Phase · Afternoon (UTC 12-18): Open $78,315.43 → $78,897.36, +0.74%, 6h volume 5,569 BTC.
- Phase · Close (UTC 18-24): Open $78,897.35 → $78,581.29, -0.40%, 6h volume 2,391 BTC.
Macro Calendar
- 🔴 2026-09-01 (Tue) · US August ISM Manufacturing PMI · Impact: High
- 🔴 2026-09-04 (Fri) · US August Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) · Impact: High
- 🔴 2026-09-11 (Fri) · US August Consumer Price Index (CPI, YoY/MoM) · Impact: High
- 🔴 2026-09-16 (Wed) · Fed September Interest Rate Decision · Impact: High
- 🔴 2026-09-17 (Thu) · Fed Chair Press Conference (Powell) · Impact: High
- 🟡 2026-09-25 (Fri) · BTC September Options Expiry (Deribit) · Impact: Medium
Bull vs. Bear
- Phase 4 (UTC 18-24) single-phase drop of -0.40% with concentrated volume of 2,391 BTC | Touched window low $77,392.00, a textbook concentrated-selloff pattern triggered by negative catalysts
- OI 24h net +1.56% with price falling while OI rose = shorts actively building | OI added 1,658 BTC while price fell +1.16%, textbook active short accumulation
- Taker sell-side 24h average 0.9638 < 1.0 with sellers in control | Takers persistently sell-side dominant, even though the latest 0.9948 print returned buyers, price failed to mount an effective rebound
- Phase 3 (UTC 12-18) single-phase rebound of +0.74% with 5,569 BTC volume | Touched window high $79,250.00, a textbook technical rebound following negative catalysts
- Top Trader Long/Short 24h average 2.08 — institutions mildly bullish | Top L/S 24h avg 2.08 / close 2.10, institutions held a mildly bullish stance through the window
- Close $78,581.29 defended the $77,392.00-$79,250.00 range | 24h price held inside the window range without breaking the lower bound = short-term support effective