Bitcoin · 2026-09-05
当日の見解：BTC closed yesterday with a small bullish candle: open $79,660.77, high $80,200.00, low $79,442.00, close $79,831.75, a +0.21% move over 24 hours with an intraday range of roughly 0.95%. Volume of 9,117 BTC contracted sharply versus the prior day's 19,199 BTC (about -52%); price stabilized but volume did not follow through, pointing to base-building rather than a strong reversal. The funding rate averaged +0.00159%, stepping down further from +0.0094% the prior day (about 0.3x), staying mildly positive and leaving long-side carry essentially negligible. Open Interest fell from 107,913 to 106,255 BTC (-1.54%); with price ticking up while OI contracted, the structure is a textbook (c₂) mild short de-leveraging stabilization — an orderly repair-in-progress rather than a directional move. FGI held at 73 (Greed) with no extreme reading. Composite view: short-term bias is stabilizing at the lows but lacks fresh bids; watch the $80,200 upside resistance and the $79,442 lower-edge support; next week's US CPI and the FOMC rate decision are the key variables, and a second leg lower into Greed remains the risk if volume stays anemic.
Key Data
- BTC Closing Price: UTC 2026-09-05 00:00 reported $79,660.77, UTC 2026-09-05 24:00 reported $79,882.98, +0.21% within the window
- Intraday Range: High $80,200.00 / Low $79,442.00, range $758.00 (0.95%)
- 24h Total Network Volume: 9,117 BTC (approximately $727 million)
- Perpetual Funding Rate: 4-period average +0.00159% (09-05 00:00 +0.00101% / 09-05 08:00 -0.00015% / 09-05 16:00 +0.00192% / 09-06 00:00 +0.00359%)
- Taker Buy/Sell Ratio: 24h average 1.0688, latest 0.9066
- Retail Long/Short Account Ratio: 24h average 1.0387, latest 1.0475
- Top Trader Long/Short Ratio: 24h average 2.1072, latest 2.1028
- Open Interest (OI): 24h net -1.54%, currently 106,255 BTC
- Perpetual Basis: Stable within the -0.05% to +0.05% range
- Fear & Greed Index: 2026-09-05 reading 73 (Neutral)
24H Price Review
- Phase · Early (UTC 00-06): Open $79,660.77 → $79,577.53, -0.10%, 6h volume 1,650 BTC.
- Phase · Mid-Morning (UTC 06-12): Open $79,577.53 → $79,609.28, +0.04%, 6h volume 1,846 BTC.
- Phase · Afternoon (UTC 12-18): Open $79,609.29 → $80,058.60, +0.56%, 6h volume 3,126 BTC.
- Phase · Close (UTC 18-24): Open $80,058.60 → $79,831.75, -0.28%, 6h volume 2,494 BTC.
Macro Calendar
- 🔴 2026-09-11 (Fri) · US August Consumer Price Index (CPI, YoY/MoM) · Impact: High
- 🔴 2026-09-16 (Wed) · Fed September Interest Rate Decision · Impact: High
- 🔴 2026-09-17 (Thu) · Fed Chair Press Conference (Powell) · Impact: High
- 🟡 2026-09-25 (Fri) · BTC September Options Expiry (Deribit) · Impact: Medium
Bull vs. Bear
- Phase 4 (UTC 18-24) single-phase drop of -0.28% with concentrated volume of 2,494 BTC | Touched window low $79,442.00, a textbook concentrated-selloff pattern triggered by negative catalysts
- OI 24h net -1.54% with both sides de-leveraging | OI shed 1,658 BTC, both longs and shorts actively reduced exposure — textbook de-leveraging
- Range 0.95% elevated volatility reflects intense two-sided battle | 24h range 0.95% hit a recent high, rising volatility = rising holding risk
- Phase 3 (UTC 12-18) single-phase rebound of +0.56% with 3,126 BTC volume | Touched window high $80,200.00, a textbook technical rebound following negative catalysts
- Top Trader Long/Short 24h average 2.11 — institutions mildly bullish | Top L/S 24h avg 2.11 / close 2.10, institutions held a mildly bullish stance through the window
- Close $79,831.75 held within the $79,442.00–$80,200.00 range | 24h price stayed inside the window range without breaking the lower edge = near-term support intact