Bitcoin · 2026-10-25

当日の見解：本日の見解：BTCは10/25に80154で終了し、0.91%下落した。始値80888、高値81034、安値79846で、午後の0.27%反発後に終盤6時間で0.79%急落し、売り圧は終盤に集中した。取引量は6,253 BTCで、7日平均13,865 BTCを54.9%下回り、直近数週間の取引量として氷点水準となった。資金面：資金金利は全4Movedでプラスとなりumbing号への転換もないが、終盤に0.008027%から0.001713%へ減衰し、78.7%低下した。ronic longsの金利支払意欲は後退している。ポジション面：未決済残高は95,166から93,684へ1.56%減少し、価格下落 accompanied by position reduction indicates deleveraging rather than new short entries. 能動的な売買比は0.7974で売り優勢となった。構造面：大口|中国人の，长期/短期ポジション比は4.44%減の1.6263/account level only down 0.52%, dual tier same direction de-leveraging and position reduction faster, retail long/short ratio down 1.61%, Fear and Greed Index rose from 51 to 54. Signal determination is (c), mechanism is a weak variant dominated by deleveraging, with funding collapse in the final phase overlapping with sell-side dominance in the closing session and no new short leverage. Cross-asset performance shows a synchronized weak-day, low-volume variant, with ETH falling more deeply and large traders' dual-tier divergence. The market is in a T+3 position downgrade and wait-and-see window ahead of the 10/28 rate decision. Outlook: Resistance at 81034, support at 79846. Watch the 10/28 rate decision and Warsh press conference, as well as the 10/30 options expiry. Direction selection under ice-level volume awaits confirmation from catalysts.