Ethereum · 2026-08-16
当日の見解：On August 16, ETH closed at $1,876 (-0.35%), oscillating in a narrow $1,869-$1,892 range, with volume of 68,574 ETH expanding a sharp 42.3% from August 15 (vs BTC contracting 12.4%, marking a pattern divergence of #2 split-volume), and funding at +0.00205% (halved from the prior day's +0.00376%, a -45.5% decline), while OI rose a modest 0.09% (down sharply from the prior day's +0.95%). The dominant force is (c) sell-pressure release: price down, volume up, OI roughly flat, and funding weakening — sells are in control but new short-building is not active, characterizing a digestion-driven decline. FGI held at 34 (Fear), with BTC moving in tandem exerting a systemic drag. The $1,860-$1,870 area is the key support zone, with $1,890-$1,895 acting as intraday resistance; watch the ETH/BTC ratio and the August 21 spot ETH ETF net inflow data.
Key Data
- ETH closing price: $1,882.64 at UTC 2026-08-16 00:00 and $1,875.00 at UTC 2026-08-16 24:00, down 0.35% over the window
- Intraday range: high $1,892.31 / low $1,869.17, a $23.14 range (1.23%)
- 24-hour total market volume: 68,574 ETH (approximately $129 million)
- Perpetual funding rate: four-period average +0.00205% (08-16 00:00 -0.00042% / 08-16 08:00 +0.00195% / 08-16 16:00 +0.00397% / 08-17 00:00 +0.00272%)
- Taker buy/sell ratio: 24-hour average 0.8783, latest 1.0683
- Retail long/short account ratio: 24-hour average 2.5711, latest 2.6697
- Top-trader long/short position ratio: 24-hour average 1.3751, latest 1.3804
- Open Interest (OI): 24-hour net change +0.09%, currently 2,363,248 ETH
- Perpetual basis: stable within the -0.05% to +0.05% range
- Fear & Greed Index: 34 on 2026-08-16 (Fear)
24H Price Review
- Phase · Early session (UTC 00-06): open $1,882.64 → $1,879.81, -0.15%, 6h volume 12,236 ETH.
- Phase · Late morning (UTC 06-12): open $1,879.82 → $1,880.94, +0.06%, 6h volume 10,707 ETH.
- Phase · Afternoon (UTC 12-18): open $1,880.94 → $1,885.17, +0.22%, 6h volume 17,724.
- Phase · Close (UTC 18-24): open $1,885.18 → $1,876.00, -0.49%, 6h volume 26,747 ETH.
Macro Calendar
- 🟡 2026-08-19 (Wed) · U.S. July Retail Sales m/m · Impact: Medium
- 🟡 2026-08-26 (Wed) · U.S. August Consumer Confidence Index · Impact: Medium
- 🟡 2026-08-28 (Fri) · BTC August options expiry (Deribit) · Impact: Medium
- 🔴 2026-09-01 (Tue) · U.S. August ISM Manufacturing Index · Impact: High
- 🔴 2026-09-04 (Fri) · U.S. August Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) · Impact: High
- 🔴 2026-09-11 (Fri) · U.S. August Consumer Price Index (CPI, y/y and m/m) · Impact: High
Bull vs. Bear
- Phase 4 (UTC 18-24) saw a single-stage 0.49% sell-off with 26,747 ETH in concentrated volume | Price touched the window low of $1,869.17, a typical pattern of concentrated selling triggered by negative news
- OI rose a net 0.09% over 24 hours, near neutral | OI added 2,063 ETH with capital neither notably exiting nor actively building positions
- Taker selling dominated with 24-hour average 0.8783 below 1.0 | Persistent taker-side sell pressure, although the latest 1.0683 print shows some buy-side return without an effective price rebound
- Phase 3 (UTC 12-18) delivered a single-stage 0.22% rebound on volume of 18,884 ETH | Price touched the window high of $1,892.31, a typical post-negative-event technical rebound pattern
- Top-trader long/short positions averaged 1.38 over 24 hours, indicating a mildly bullish institutional stance | The ratio averaged 1.38 and ended at 1.38, showing institutions maintained mildly bullish stance throughout the window
- Taker buying returned to 1.0683 above 1.0 in the closing session | Taker buying returned at the close, showing market support around $1,869.17