Ethereum · 2026-10-21

当日の見解：本日の見解：ETHは10/21に2474で closings、1.00%上昇。2449で寄り付き、2527の高値、2437の安値を記録。早盤に2437まで下 probing した後、力強くなり、 traded with increased volume during the session to reach 2527, but eased back to close at 2474. Trading volume of 340373 was 35.0% above the 7d average of 252163, with the volume expansion more than twice that of BTC, highlighting pronounced high-beta characteristics. 資金面：funding rates were positive across all four periods, rising monotonically through the first three periods to 0.00850%, before collapsing to 0.00143% in the final period. Having fallen more than 80% from its peak, the short-covering process is essentially complete. ポジション面：total open interest fell 1.55%, indicating a deleveraging-driven advance with no incremental capital participation. 構造面：the whale account long/short ratio fell 19.2%, while the position long/short ratio rose slightly by 2.7%; the retail long/short ratio fell 14.0%. The Fear & Greed Index rose from 55 to 63, returning to the greed zone, creating a divergence between account positioning and position data. The signal is classified as (c-mix), driven by short liquidation: passive covering pushed prices higher in the earlier periods, while aggressive selling regained dominance in the final period (aggressive buy/sell ratio 0.61). The divergence between withdrawal at the account level and a slight increase at the position level constitutes a reversal warning; strength in price does not necessarily mean whales are bullish. 展望：with Deribit options expiry approaching on 10/23, 2527–2550 is resistance overhead and 2437 is support below. It is necessary to observe whether the pullback can hold the range broken out on increased volume.