Ethereum · 2026-08-20

당일 추세 판단: 신중 강세

당일 관점: ETH closed at $2,326.82 on August 20 (+3.29%), a rebound within a range of $2,221-$2,360. The gain was weaker than BTC (0.62x of BTC's 5.32%); funding at +0.00976% was slightly higher than BTC (1.15x BTC); OI fell notably -0.94% (2.34M → 2.32M), down 22K contracts. FGI 62, same as BTC. Overall assessment (c-mix): price rebound + funding slightly up + OI sharply down = short covering dominant with partial short squeeze, rebound health neutral-to-weak (institutions not following through). BTC vs ETH pattern divergence #11: BTC price strong + OI flat (real long buying), ETH price weak + OI down (short retreat). Key levels: support at $2,250 / $2,221 daily low; resistance at $2,360 / $2,400 psychological level. Same as BTC, watch tonight's Jackson Hole Powell speech — high sensitivity to risk-asset broad moves.

Key Data

ETH Close: UTC 2026-08-20 00:00 at $2,252.81, UTC 2026-08-20 24:00 at $2,329.33, +3.29% within window
Intraday Range: High $2,360.00 / Low $2,221.54, amplitude $138.46 (6.15%)
24H Network Volume: 648,621 ETH (approx. $1.486 billion)
Perpetual Funding Rate: 4-period mean +0.00976% (08-20 00:00 +0.01000% / 08-20 08:00 +0.01000% / 08-20 16:00 +0.01000% / 08-21 00:00 +0.00903%)
Active Taker Buy/Sell Ratio: 24H average 1.0057, latest 1.1483
Long/Short Account Ratio (Retail): 24H average 2.3326, latest 2.2216
Whale Position Long/Short Ratio: 24H average 1.5388, latest 1.6230
Open Interest (OI): 24H net -0.94%, now 2,320,370 ETH
Perpetual Basis: Stable in the -0.05% to +0.05% range
Fear & Greed Index: 62 on 2026-08-20 (Neutral)

24H Price Review

Phase 1 (UTC 00-06): Open $2,252.81 → $2,248.36, -0.20%, 6H volume 135,793 ETH.
Phase 2 (UTC 06-12): Open $2,248.36 → $2,296.58, +2.14%, 6H volume 195,010 ETH.
Phase 3 (UTC 12-18): Open $2,296.59 → $2,344.26, +2.08%, 6H volume 218,863 ETH.
Phase 4 (UTC 18-24): Open $2,344.25 → $2,326.82, -0.74%, 6H volume 98,955 ETH.

Macro Calendar

🟡 2026-08-26 (Wed) · US August Consumer Confidence Index · Impact: Medium
🟡 2026-08-28 (Fri) · BTC August Options Expiry (Deribit) · Impact: Medium
🔴 2026-09-01 (Tue) · US August ISM Manufacturing Index · Impact: High
🔴 2026-09-04 (Fri) · US August Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) · Impact: High
🔴 2026-09-11 (Fri) · US August Consumer Price Index (CPI, YoY/MoM) · Impact: High
🔴 2026-09-16 (Wed) · Fed September Rate Decision · Impact: High
🔴 2026-09-17 (Thu) · Fed Chair Press Conference (Powell) · Impact: High

Bull vs. Bear

Phase 4 (UTC 18-24) single-phase dump -0.74% + concentrated volume 98,955 ETH | Touched window low $2,221.54, typical "concentrated selling triggered by bearish events" pattern
OI 24H net -0.94% near neutral | OI net -22,113 ETH, funds neither clearly withdrawing nor actively building positions
Amplitude 6.15% high volatility reflects intense bull-bear battle | 24H amplitude 6.15% near recent high, rising price volatility = higher position risk
Phase 2 (UTC 06-12) single-phase rebound +2.14% + volume 195,010 ETH | Touched window high $2,360.00, typical "technical rebound after bearish event" pattern
Whale long/short ratio 24H average 1.54, institutions mildly bullish | Whale L/S 24H average 1.54 / close 1.62, institutions maintained mildly bullish stance in the window
Active buying at close 1.1483 > 1.0, buy-side returning | Closing taker buy-side returned, showing buy support near $2,221.54