Bitcoin · 2026-06-29

That day's trend: Neutral leaning bullish

That day's view: BTC closed 6/29 at $60,260 (+1.15%), O=59,577 H=60,780 L=58,900, volume 20,203 BTC, second 12h volume 1.68x the first. Funding flipped from 0.003% to 0.0087% before easing to 0.0062% (all three 8h tenors trending bullish). OI -0.89% as major players reduced exposure, retail long/short 2.19 leaning long (capitulation-buying signal), top-trader ratio 1.25 mildly bullish. Force mechanism: (c-mix) — major-player de-risking + cascading short liquidations + retail capitulation-buying. FGI 12 extreme fear persists. Key levels: $60,000 psychological / $60,780 H resistance / $58,900 L support. Watch whether 7/1 PCE data breaks the H.

Key Data

BTC close: UTC 2026-06-29 00:00 $59,577.01, UTC 2026-06-29 24:00 $60,212.00, window +1.15%
Intraday range: high $60,780.57 / low $58,900.01, range $1,880.56 (3.16%)
24h total network volume: 20,203 BTC (~$1.21B)
Perpetual funding rate: 4-period mean +0.00635% (06-29 00:00 +0.00311% / 06-29 08:00 +0.00744% / 06-29 16:00 +0.00866% / 06-30 00:00 +0.00617%)
Taker buy/sell ratio: 24h mean 1.0000, latest 0.8560
Retail long/short ratio: 24h mean 2.1940, latest 2.0367
Top-trader long/short ratio: 24h mean 1.2506, latest 1.2833
Open interest (OI): 24h net -0.89%, current 102,060 BTC
Perpetual basis: stable in -0.05% to +0.05% band
Fear & Greed Index: 2026-06-29 at 12 (extreme fear)

24H Price Review

Phase 1 early session (UTC 00-06): open $59,577.01 → $60,102.80, +0.88%, 6h volume 4,059 BTC.
Phase 2 mid-morning (UTC 06-12): open $60,102.80 → $59,956.05, -0.24%, 6h volume 3,475 BTC.
Phase 3 afternoon (UTC 12-18): open $59,956.05 → $60,413.99, +0.76%, 6h volume 10,570 BTC.
Phase 4 closing (UTC 18-24): open $60,413.99 → $60,260.21, -0.25%, 6h volume 2,098 BTC.

Macro Calendar

2026-07-01 (Wed) · U.S. May ISM Services PMI · Impact: Medium
2026-07-05 (Sun) · U.S. May ISM Manufacturing PMI · Impact: Medium
2026-07-05 (Sun) · U.S. May Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) · Impact: Medium
2026-07-07 (Tue) · U.S. May CPI (YoY/MoM) · Impact: High
2026-07-08 (Wed) · Distressed Mt. Gox creditor repayment window · Impact: Medium
2026-07-09 (Thu) · Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) ongoing BTC selling risk · Impact: Medium
2026-07-12 (Sun) · FOMC interest rate decision (minutes next day) · Impact: High
2026-07-13 (Mon) · Fed Chair press conference · Impact: High

Bull vs. Bear

Phase 4 (UTC 18-24) one-shot drop -0.25% with concentrated 2,098 BTC volume — touched window low $58,900.01, classic 'news-triggered concentrated selling pressure' pattern
OI 24h net -0.89% near neutral — net -916 BTC, capital neither materially exiting nor actively building positions
FGI 12 extreme fear — sentiment still fragile (persisting since 5/31), retail L/S 2.19 heavily long acts as a contrarian indicator: further downside could trigger retail stop-loss selling pressure
Phase 1 (UTC 00-06) one-shot bounce +0.88% with 4,059 BTC volume — touched window high $60,780.57, classic 'post-news technical rebound' pattern
Top-trader long/short ratio 24h mean 1.25 — institutions mildly bullish | mean 1.25 / closing 1.28, showing institutions maintained a mildly bullish stance through the window
Taker buy-side at close 0.8560 — buy-side returning | end-of-window taker buy pressure returning aligns with the closing rebound, indicating buyers stepping back in after a low was tested