Ethereum · 2026-06-25

That day's trend: Cautiously bearish

That day's view: ETH closed 6/25 at $1,567.84 (-3.35%), opening $1,622.18, high $1,660.54, low $1,532.90, with the drop 1.59× BTC's, exhibiting high-beta catch-down. A deep V to $1,532 then a $35 recovery. Volume of 440,671 ETH was +23.9% vs 6/24, the largest in 5 days, forming a 'volume divergence' with BTC's -1.0% contraction. Funding rate flipped from 6/24 +0.00184% to -0.00124%, with shorts regaining short-term pricing power (absolute value still mild). Open interest turned positive at +1.67% (vs 6/24 -1.00%), with major players going long against the trend below $1,560. Composite reading (c) is short-covering + whale-buying: retail L/S 2.65 elevated, taker buy/sell 1.01 neutral, top-trader L/S 1.34 rising—whales are using retail panic to accumulate on the opposite side. FGI 12 (extreme fear) in sync with BTC; ETH/BTC ratio 0.0262 vs 6/24 (0.0266) weakened -1.5%. Key levels: resistance $1,600-$1,622 and $1,660 (today's H); support $1,533 and $1,500. Watch 6/26 PCE and whether the ratio stabilizes at 0.0260.

Key Data

ETH close: UTC 2026-06-25 00:00 $1,622.18, UTC 2026-06-25 24:00 $1,568.83, -3.35% on the window
Intraday range: high $1,660.54 / low $1,532.90, range $127.64 (7.87%)
24h total network volume: 440,671 ETH (≈ $701M)
Perpetual funding rate: 4-period average -0.00124% (00:00 +0.00054% / 08:00 +0.00428% / 16:00 -0.00813% / 24:00 -0.00167%)
Taker buy/sell ratio: 24h average 1.0137, latest 0.9044
Retail long/short account ratio: 24h average 2.4216, latest 2.6470
Top-trader long/short ratio: 24h average 1.3408, latest 1.3428
Open interest: 24h net +1.67%, currently 2,306,425 ETH
Perpetual basis: stable in -0.05% to +0.05% range
Fear & Greed Index: 12 on 2026-06-25 (extreme fear)

24H Price Review

Session · Early (UTC 00-06): open $1,622.18 → $1,645.89, +1.46%, 6h volume 63,928 ETH
Session · Pre-noon (UTC 06-12): open $1,645.89 → $1,633.27, -0.77%, 6h volume 67,623 ETH
Session · Afternoon (UTC 12-18): open $1,633.28 → $1,574.92, -3.57%, 6h volume 242,123 ETH
Session · Close (UTC 18-24): open $1,574.92 → $1,567.84, -0.45%, 6h volume 66,997 ETH

Macro Calendar

🟡 2026-06-27 (Sat) · US May ISM Services PMI · Impact: Medium
🟡 2026-07-01 (Wed) · US May ISM Manufacturing PMI · Impact: Medium
🟡 2026-07-01 (Wed) · US May Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) · Impact: Medium
🔴 2026-07-03 (Fri) · US May CPI (YoY/MoM) · Impact: High
🟡 2026-07-04 (Sat) · Defunct Mt. Gox creditor repayment window · Impact: Medium
🟡 2026-07-05 (Sun) · Strategy (MSTR) ongoing BTC sale risk · Impact: Medium
🔴 2026-07-08 (Wed) · FOMC rate decision (minutes next day) · Impact: High
🔴 2026-07-09 (Thu) · Fed Chair press conference · Impact: High

Bull vs. Bear

Session 3 (UTC 12-18) single-stage plunge -3.57% with concentrated volume 242,123 ETH, hitting window low $1,532.90—a textbook 'negative-event-triggered concentrated selling pressure' pattern
OI 24h net +1.67% with price down = active short accumulation; OI up +37,937 ETH while price down -3.35%, classic active short buildup
FGI 12 extreme fear with fragile sentiment, still in extreme-fear zone (since 5/31), retail L/S 2.42 heavily long = contrarian indicator; if price continues lower, retail stop-losses amplify selling pressure
Session 1 (UTC 00-06) single-stage bounce +1.46% with volume 63,928 ETH, hitting window high $1,660.54—a 'post-negative-event technical rebound' pattern
Top-trader L/S 24h average 1.34 indicates institutions mildly long; 24h average 1.34 / latest 1.34 show institutions maintained a mildly bullish stance throughout the window
Late-session taker buy ratio 0.9044 below 1.0 but session rebound shows dip-buying starting to engage near the bottom